probability (7 posts)

In a groundbreaking discovery, we find out that something has to happen all the time, and nothing can't happen any of the time. We make up new words, like "empirical," "inference," and "bear."

Previously on this blog I’ve discusses Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and how we can use it to estimate a complex posterior distribution we…

Sample from complex posteriors by just sampling from a simple Gaussian distribution?! Sign me up!

In his 1981 and 1983 Baseball Abstracts, pioneering sabermetrician Bill James proposed the log5 method for mixing event probabilities, which…

I’ve recently been reading about the JointVAE model proposed by Emilien Dupont in the paper Learning Disentangled Joint Continuous and…

One of my courses recently introduced Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, which has a lot of applications. I’d like to dive into those…

Let’s say that you and I are roommates, and I notice you’ve been gone the last two Friday nights. This is not necessarily unusual, and…